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Fantasy 5 past winning numbers9/16/2023 ![]() ![]() Nevertheless, Johnson is a concern to Herbert’s passing game work/third downs, but that’s not a huge worry for this analyst. Herbert was 54.4, between Kareem Hunt and Raheem Mostert, just behind Josh Jacobs, and ahead of Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook and Travis Etienne, so it’s not a death knell. That being said, Herbert is much better than D’Onta Foreman, who was second-to-last in PFF blocking (14.8) - just ahead of Corey Clement (12.4). Now, Herbert isn’t awful, but watching Roschon Johnson in college, he appears to be much better at protection than Herbert is. I also believe the pass-blocking concerns are warranted. Khalil Herbert, CHI - I believe in Herbert’s talent. The likelihood of White reaching the RB1 group with Mayfield and/or Kyle Trask is slim.Ģ. ![]() He’s the best breakout running back on this list, but be cautious of the hype and don’t overpay. The lost effectiveness of the offense is the main worry, as it’s historically difficult for a running back to be Top 12 in FPPG while playing in a Bottom 10 offense.īefore investing in RBs on expected weak offenses, don’t forget how difficult it is to finish as an RB1 (FPPG) in a Bottom 10 offenseĪssuming the Buccaneers don’t add any more competition, White is set to lead the way and become a rock-solid RB2 with upside to push the RB1 tier. However, for the negatives, the loss of Tom Brady is significant, even though Baker Mayfield targets running backs almost the same amount as Brady did in 2022 (Brady 19.6%, Mayfield 19.3% career, peak 21.5% in 2019). White has the talent and opportunity to blow away his RB38 finish (RB53 in FPPG). From Weeks 12-17, White averaged 5.5 targets and 5.0 receptions. The biggest appeal is White’s passing-game involvement. White averaged 11.7 Half-PPR points in those games, sharing with Fournette. White had six of his seven double-digit scores from Weeks 10-16, including 14-for-64 and 9-9-45 receiving without Fournette in Week 12. Rachaad White, TB - Yes, the Buccaneers showed faith in White being the guy, as Chase Edmonds and UDFA Sean Tucker were the additions for a departed Leonard Fournette. Dwayne McBride and even Ty Chandler will get their share (McBride the power option), as Mattison has been more volume-reliant than a performance metrics standout in his big games without Cook playing.ġ. Now, that is still a breakout, and RB2 in value, but 1) his situation is pretty obvious breakout-wise and 2) I would caution not to get overly sucked into the hype. ![]() Alexander Mattison, MIN - I covered the impact of the Dalvin Cook release, and while excitement might have some believe Mattison will be a RB1, it’s more likely he falls into an Aaron Jones-like role.With Lamar Jackson and Dobbins healthy, 240+ touches - with Todd Monken looking to push the offense more, especially passing - will have Dobbins in the Top 10. Again, Mark Ingram was RB8 in 2019 with just 202 carries due to the touchdown equity in Baltimore. Heck, Dobbins finished RB32 playing just 7.5 games. Dobbins, BAL - He’s been mentioned in past years, and nothing truly changes… though we have last year’s Weeks 14-17 for added ammunition. Two big names who are in a separate conversation. Bijan Robinson, ATL et al rookies - Robinson will be an easy RB1, while Jahmyr Gibbs, Charbonnet and others can be RB2s, but again, these are rookie “debuts” with no previous NFL performances to break out from.Travis Etienne, JAX Breece Hall, NYJ Kenneth Walker, SEA - Tank Bigsby is a true threat to Etienne taking another step, and Etienne was just RB15 anyway… Hall was RB7 in FPPG, and coming off that injury, Hall could be an RB1 and still fall short of 15.4 FPPG… Walker had a nice rookie season but now shares with Zach Charbonnet, making it hard for Walker to improve on being RB7 from Week 5 on.Miles Sanders, CAR - RB12 last year, and even though there is less competition for touches, will Sanders see much more volume? Plus, he was on the lower end of efficiency last year.Yes, he will break out even more, but he’s already hit pretty big. Rhamondre Stevenson, NE - Was a RB1 despite sharing with Damien Harris last year.I have concerns about if the Cowboys are truly happy with Malik Davis as the main backup and Pollard as a true bellcow, but even with 60% of the work, he’s already a Top 10 finisher. ![]() Tony Pollard, DAL - Finished RB7 last year.I’ll give you my Top 5 options - plus a few more - who you should be targeting in your fantasy football drafts. So, who are the top picks for the 2023 breakout running backs? Glad you asked. Last year, we had Travis Etienne and Josh Jacobs break out and become Top 15 running backs. ![]()
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